Now I know I literally just posted about why demographics aren’t a personality and we need to connect with the communities and fandoms we’re trying to reach BUT… you do also need an eye on some patterns in demographics, particularly if you work in higher education.
We often hear that ‘more young people than EVER’ are going to university but when the numbers of young people within an academic year are down, you of course should expect a knock-on effect to undergraduate recruitment pools.
Entry rates
According to UCAS data, the number of UK applicants to university increased year on year from 2019 -2022, driven by… an increased number of 18-year olds in the population. That lift was countered somewhat by Brexit’s impact on EU students, who faced higher fees and no fee loans from 2021.
This meant applications from EU students fell by 40% in 2021 and the number of EU students starting full time undergraduate courses fell by 67% between 2021-2023 to its lowest level since 1994.
The entry rate among UK 18-year olds increased from 24.7% in 2006 to 30.7% in 2015 and peaked at 38.2% in 2021, falling back to 35.8% in 2023, something that if demographics are anything to go by, we might expect to see again for the next year or two.
Birth rate drops and the impact on student pools in future
Obviously there are applicants of different ages applying to uni at each intake, but given the recent entry rate boost being caused by 18 year olds, I’ve focused on this age to have a look at what the numbers might tell us.
Looking ahead on that population of 18-year olds in the UK, we see figures from the Office for National Statistics drop down for both 2024 and 2025 intake, before stabilising and going up again for those at the top of the Gen Alpha age bracket (born in 2010).
However, this then starts and continues to fall quite significantly when we look further ahead, the impact of things like the pandemic and the economic crisis on the birth rate perhaps. If a fall of less than 20,000 in the 18-year-old population caused an entry rate dip of 2.4% in 2023, the drop of up to 90,000 (to 709,209 thousand children in the UK aged 1 in 2023) could cause a dip from 2021’s entry rate of around 10.8% by the time we get to 2040.
Getting ready for Gen Alphas
Understanding the journey of Gen Alphas in education is therefore going to be increasingly important for that longer-term planning.
While an 18-year strategy isn’t realistic, everything from the widening educational gap to aligning your courses to the needs and requirements of a new generation, become increasingly important.
Needing more here than higher ed marketing teams to get the “recruit more students” steer through the usual campaigns anyway!
Sources: Higher Education Student Numbers, House of Commons Library, Oct 2024 and Population by age, data from the Office of National Statistics used by Statista
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